Better than expected inflation data has led investors to speculate that central banks have room to cut interest rates in 2024 by more than the bankers have previously been implying. The shift in sentiment had a big impact on equity and bond markets but can this momentum be maintained?

This article explains some of the background and concludes that markets have room to move higher, but question marks will resurface as central bankers don’t want to be seen to be soft on inflation risks. 

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Changing expectations on inflation? 

Interest rates and inflation expectations have fluctuated significantly in 2023. After over a year of rising rates as central banks battled high inflation, markets have begun pricing in the possibility of rate cuts in 2024 as price pressures start to ease. This article will examine interest rate expectations in the US, UK, and Eurozone (with emphasis on the US) and explore how these shifting expectations have impacted asset prices and investor sentiment. 

Figure 1. The journey that US inflation has been on as represented by Headline Consumer Prices, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 1 above shows the path of consumer prices in the US, the figure is the headline rate when comparing prices now to a period 12 months prior. The headline figure includes volatile items such as energy and food prices, along with the more stubborn inflation that is associated with wages. It is the latter that the central banks worry about. In November, it was the lower than expected consumer prices figure that got investors excited that the Federal Reserve in the US may have room to cut interest rates more quickly than they have been indicating.  

As it stands today, the Federal Reserve is indicating that there might be 3 rates cuts next year, each of 0.25%. However, following the November inflation number and more recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell, investors are now factoring in 6 interest rate cuts of 0.25%. The last time expectations of interest rate cuts got to anything like this level was during the regional banking crisis in May this year. So, you can see that dramatic moves in interest rate expectations are more usually associated with crisis situations.  

US inflation has slowed materially in the last few months, as the labour market has come into greater balance. In addition, supply chain pressures have eased and falling oil prices have dampened cost pressures on businesses and consumers. As inflation has come closer to the 2% target (core inflation has run at around 3.5% over the last three months) investors have begun to look ahead to a return to interest rates that are closer to the so-called ‘natural’ rate of interest – this is the theoretical rate of interest consistent with neither a contracting or overheating economy and is estimated at around 1-1.5% above the rate of inflation by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The roadmap for Interest rates

It is not only in the US that markets are seeing slowing inflation and an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts, as the following graph shows: 

Figure 2. The path of expected interest rates in the US, UK and Europe, Source: Trading Economics

The above chart compares investor expectations for the number of interest rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024, across three central bank regions, the US, UK and Europe. The bars show the number of cuts expected in each region  

Looking at an international comparison, we see that interest rate cuts are not only expected in the US, but also in the UK and EU. Europe stands out, with markets expecting over 8 cuts by December 2024. European inflation has followed US inflation down, however that is only half the story, as economic growth in Europe is expected to deteriorate to a greater extent than in the US. Growth has been weaker in the EU than US throughout 2023 and that relative position is expected to continue, with US growth slowing and the EU expected to see economic contraction. 

Markets expect the ECB will have to loosen monetary policy substantially in a bid to kickstart growth. The UK, on the other hand, is expected to have comparatively few interest rate cuts. This is owing to the perception of more entrenched UK inflation, particularly wage-driven inflation in the services sector. (this topic was covered in the previous edition of the investment market update). 

Figure 3: Performance of the S&P 500 (orange line) and the markets expectations of a fall in US interest rates (white line), Source: Trading Economics

This graph shows the S&P 500 equity index (the main US stock market) in orange, with the number of cuts expected by December 2024 in white.  

There is clearly a link between rate cut expectations and equity market performance. This has led the S&P 500 to gain over 8% through the month of November. The increase though in the S&P 500 during November and over the course of the year has been the result of seven of the largest stocks dubbed the ‘Magnificent 7’ outperforming given that they are beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence wave which has been a key theme in markets. Conversely the performance of remaining 493 stocks has been broadly flat which has created a divergence in the performance of US large cap companies and small cap companies.

We have begun though to see increased attention for those stocks which have underperformed year-to-date most notably with small cap companies. This move from an ‘only the 7 rally’ to ‘everything rally’ was not an exclusively equity market phenomena, with rallies seen in government bonds, corporate bonds and even beaten-down asset classes like infrastructure. Rallies in bond markets pulled bond yields down, which allowed corporations to access financing at lower rates than they had seen in months, leading to a bumper month of corporate bond issuance. 

The result of this is that the traditional 60% equity and 40% bonds portfolio saw its best November since 1991, returning 9.6% in dollar terms. This highlights the benefit of staying invested in markets, as if you we're to have missed out on last month's returns then this will have compromised your returns for the overall year.  

And what does the future hold? 

Looking ahead we continue to expect a supportive environment for financial markets.  

The recent increase in small cap (or unloved) companies means equity markets are trading at (relatively) more attractive valuations which provides an opportunity for investors, but also reduces the risk that the small minority of companies (the Magnificent 7) which have contributed to most of the recent performance, will fall in price. Similarly with bonds the combination of robust corporate balance sheets and that companies do not need to immediately refinance their debt (and in doing so increase their ongoing costs) means the outlook for bonds is also positive and offer investors an attractive level of income.  

As a final word, while recent market developments have been encouraging, reasons for caution remain. As noted in the paragraph comparing interest rate expectations internationally, in Europe the expectations for cuts are driven in large part by expectations of deteriorating economic growth. While the US is expected to be stronger there is still the expectation that growth will slow and as a result, we continue to favour holding a diversified portfolio which provides diversification not just by investing in several different countries but also investing across multiple asset classes (equities and bonds) and different industries.  

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Note: This Market update is for general information only, does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions. Additionally, past performance is not a guide to future returns. Investment returns are not guaranteed, and you may get back less than you originally invested.

In the November 2023 Autumn Statement, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled the new rules around Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) to come into effect from April 2024.

Some of the biggest changes included the ability to pay into multiple ISAs of the same type in each tax year, as long as the overall allowance is not breached, and the ability to do partial transfers of ISA funds regardless of when you first deposited the money. 

Currently, you can pay into just one ISA of each type per tax year, for example just one cash ISA and one stocks and shares ISA and can only do partial transfers of funds that you’ve paid in before the current tax year.

With the new changes, cash savers will have the option to open multiple cash ISAs each year, which could be particularly helpful if you’ve opened a fixed rate cash ISA , for example, with less than the full allowance. With a fixed rate cash ISA, once the initial deposit has been made, you are unable to add any further monies. Therefore, at present, unless you wanted to utilise your remaining allowance in a stocks and shares ISA, you wouldn’t be able to open another cash ISA, so would be unable to utilise your remaining allowance. Investors too will be able to open ISAs with more than one provider and have far more flexibility switching.

But it’s worth remembering that the potential disadvantage that this flexibility brings is that if you are opening multiple accounts you will need to be mindful of the total amount you have contributed so that you make sure you have not exceeded the ISA limits. Plus, the added time and resources needed to review and potentially switch multiple ISAs, going forward. 

In short, the changes give significant adaptability back to savers, allowing them to adjust to the financial climate in a far more fluid way. 

However, this extra flexibility does not come without it’s caveats. When opening multiple accounts, savers will need to be mindful of the total amount they are contributing so that they don’t breach their £20,000 ISA contribution limit. Opening multiple accounts will also come with an increased demand of the saver’s time to review and manage these different accounts.  

It’s important to note that the amount you can save in ISAs and JISAs is not changing, and instead remains frozen at £20,000 for ISAs and £9,000 for JISAs. Similarly, Child Trust Funds remain frozen at £9,000 and LISAs at £4,000, excluding the Government 25% bonus. 

And for those under 18, adult cash ISAs will no longer be accessible. At the moment you can still open an adult cash ISA from the age of 16. However, with the new changes, those aged 16 and 17 will only have access to Junior ISAs. So, for those falling in that age-bracket, now might be the time to consider opening an adult cash ISA before next April (2024) when the policy comes into effect.

What is an ISA?

An ISA, or Individual Savings Account, is a scheme that allows individuals to save up to £20,000 in total into cash and investments the returns of which are free of tax on dividends, interest, and capital gains. Essentially, it’s a savings account that you don’t pay tax on. 

The different types of ISAs

There is a variety of ISAs to choose from in the UK, each with their own unique features and benefits. As a starting point, there are three main types to consider:

Cash ISA

A cash ISA is essentially a tax-free savings account that allows you to invest up to £20,000 each tax year. What’s notable about cash ISAs is that you do not have to pay any tax on the interest you earn. Cash ISAs have become particularly valuable as interest rates have risen as people are paying more on their non-ISA savings accounts. Where larger amounts of savings are concerned the difference can be significant. 

Stocks and Shares ISA

Much like the cash ISA, you can deposit up to £20,000 each tax year (but this is the total that you can deposit across all ISAs that you subscribe to each year) and you do not pay tax on any gains made. As the name suggests, in a stocks and shares ISA your funds are invested in a range of assets including stocks, shares, bonds and funds. With many stocks and shares ISAs, you will get to choose where you invest your savings. This means that there is some inherent risk in stocks and shares ISAs, as the value of investments can go down as well as up. 

Lifetime ISA

Lifetime ISAs are notable because of the relatively huge, guaranteed returns. Although you can only save up to £4,000 a year in lifetime ISAs, the Government guarantees that 25% of your investment will be matched. That means if you deposit the maximum amount of £4,000 in your lifetime ISA each year, the Government will add an additional £1,000 tax-free annually. The caveat is that the money accumulated in a lifetime ISA can only be used to either buy your first home, or to be withdrawn after the age of 60 for retirement. Any earlier withdrawal incurs a 25% penalty. 

When choosing a style of investment to suit your needs, you may want to consider how long you plan to invest for and how much you would like your money to grow. It is also important to understand what movement in value you may or may not be happy with and any potential losses that may happen. That is why professional independent financial advice can be crucial for understanding how to take those first steps towards a secure financial future. 

If you want to find out more, why not give us a call on 0333 323 9065 or book a free non-committal initial consultation with one of our chartered advisers to find out how we can help.

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This article is intended for general information only, it does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions.

Investment returns are not guaranteed, and you may get back less than you originally invested.

Most parents would like to ensure their children have a strong financial footing when they are older, but don’t always know the best way to do this. There are many ways to support your children financially throughout their lifetime, but what if there was a way to make them a millionaire before they even reached retirement age? Here we look at the best ways to put money aside for your children and how you can maximise the benefits of compound interest to make your child a “millionaire”!

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The first step to saving for your children’s future is understanding your saving options. Here are the most common options that benefit from tax-free growth: 

Junior ISA(JISA)

From the day a child is born you can put money into a JISA for them. The current contribution limit is £9,000 per tax year (or £750 per month) and you have the choice of a Junior Investment ISA or a Junior Cash ISA. The most important benefit of a JISA is that any gains made, or interest earned will be tax-free!

If we assume you receive an average annual net return of 5% per year and you save the maximum of £9,000 every tax year, from the day your child is born until they turn 18, you will have contributed a total of £162,000 to their account. However, due to the magic of compound interest (where you earn interest on interest), they will have a pot of over £265,000 saved in a tax-efficient wrapper, what a great 18th birthday present!

At their 18th birthday they can transfer their JISA into an Adult ISA to continue to receive tax-free interest/ investment returns.

Junior Self-Invested Personal Pension (Junior SIPP)

Setting up a pension up for your children may seem like you are overly preparing but this can actually give your children a significant head start. The maximum you can currently save into a Junior SIPP is £2,880 per tax year, and the UK government will add tax 20% tax relief of £720 per tax year, which would bring the total contribution to £3,600. If you can contribute to your child’s Junior SIPP for 18 years and again assuming a 5% growth rate, you will have contributed £51,840 but their pension pot will be worth £106,340 due to the added tax relief. If your child doesn’t contribute to the pension again, by age 57* they could have a pension pot worth around £712,986. Similar to the JISA, any gains made within the SIPP are exempt from tax, and based on current pension rules, you can take up to 25% as a tax-free lump sum upon reaching retirement age. 

Recent statistics released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stated how the average pension wealth for all persons in the UK is £67,800 at age 57*, highlighting how starting to save early can set your child up for their future and give them a greater opportunity in retirement or even to retire early. 

How to make your child a millionaire!

And this is how to do it!!.. If you do the following and assume a 5% growth rate per annum:

1. Open a JISA before your child’s first birthday and contribute £9,000 every year until age 18. This results in a total contribution of £162,000 (18 years x £9,000).
2. Open a Junior SIPP before your child’s first birthday and contribute £3,600 (including tax relief) to the Junior SIPP every year up to their 18th birthday. This totals 18 years x £2,880 (or £3,600 with tax relief) which equals £51,840 (£64,800)

This would mean you will have contributed a total of £226,800 (including tax relief) to the JISA (£162,000), and Junior SIPP (£64,800). At age 18 when you stop contributing, they could have a total net worth of £372,191 when taking into account compound interest and growth. If they leave this money invested and continue to achieve 5% per year growth, by age 39 they could have a total net worth of just over £1million (£1,036,911), although the funds in the pension would not be accessible until age 57*. 

At that point the pension fund could have grown to £712,986, while the ISA, could be worth £1.782.465 is it remained untouched too. An extraordinary total of almost £2.5m. That is a gift worth giving.

The power of starting to save early

Using the same assumptions as above, with a 5% annual growth rate and maximising both Junior SIPP and JISA contributions until age 18:

This shows the benefits you can provide by starting the process of saving early for your child through compounding the interest or investment returns. This is a representation of how you can save for your children and assumes maximum contributions are made at each birthday, but we understand the circumstances for each parent & child will be different and may require different forms of financial planning, such as monthly contributions instead of lump sums.

Despite the examples above, it is never too late to start. If you would like to understand how, The Private Office can structure savings and investments for you and your children to help provide the whole family with a strong financial future. So why not get in touch for a free initial consultation. 

* Based on current pension regulation, where the normal minimum pension age is increasing to age 57 from April 2028. 

If you would like to know more about this topic, one of our Partners Kirsty Stone appeared on BBC Radio 4 Money Box live, giving her suggestions in a programme all about saving for children.

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This article is intended for general information only, it does not constitute individual advice and should not be used to inform financial decisions.

All the calculations in this article assume that lump sum contributions are made for 18 years, from birth, unless otherwise stated, to the 17th birthday and are not adjusted for inflation.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate tax or cash advice.

The growth rates provided are for illustrative purposes only.  Investment returns can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed.  You may get back less than you originally invested.  Investments may be subject to advice fees and product charges which will impact the overall level of return you achieve.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt promised to ‘reduce debt, cut taxes and reward work’ in his ‘Autumn Statement for growth’, but what might the changes he announced mean for your personal finances?

In the lead up to the Autumn Statement, we discussed the changes that were rumoured to have been announced in this article.

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These speculated changes included:

• Reducing Inheritance tax
• Announcing an additional ISA allowance for investment into UK companies
• Changing the state pension triple lock calculation to limit next year’s state pension increase

In the end, none of these changes were introduced, with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves claiming Hunt wanted to reduce inheritance tax but that he “couldn’t get away with it in the middle of a cost of living crisis”.  Instead, the headline grabbing change was the 2% reduction to employee national insurance contributions between £12,571 and £50,271.  This will equate to an annual saving of c. £754 p.a. to those earning over £50,270 p.a. with effect from January 2024.  Additionally, there were National Insurance reductions for the self-employed, with Class 2 contributions effectively abolished and Class 4 contributions reduced from 9% to 8% between £12,571 and £50,271 with effect from April 2024.

However, this will only go part of the way to make up for the impact of the continued freezing of the income tax bands, which will remain frozen until 2028.  Indeed, as a result of higher inflation, higher interest rates and frozen tax bands, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) states “Living standards, as measured by real household disposable income per person, are forecast to be 3.5 per cent lower in 2024-25 than their pre-pandemic level.” 

Separately, the speculated ISA allowance increase for investments into UK companies did not materialise and pensioners will be pleased to hear Mr Hunt state the government will “honour our commitment in full” as the state pension rises by 8.5% next year.

Regarding pensions, workers will hope a new legal right for their new employer to pay into their previous defined contribution pension scheme will simplify pension planning going forward and will mean an end to the accumulation of multiple schemes as individuals move between companies.

This was an Autumn Statement with half an eye on an upcoming general election, with announcements that should put more money in the pockets of workers and pensioners alike. Mr Hunt repeatedly referred to the OBR’s forecasts during his announcement as he tried to rebuild credibility, a little over a year after Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘mini-budget’, prior to which the OBR was not asked to run forecasts. Overall, Mr Hunt will have been grateful that he was able to use some of the fiscal headroom provided by then Chancellor, now Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak’s decision to freeze income tax bands back in 2021 to offer a national insurance cut and significant state pension rise to the voting public. 

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The opinions shared in this article are solely those of the individual and they do not necessarily reflect those of The Private Office.